Monday Setup
In plain terms: Prompt structure has softened into flat or contango territory, which is a warning that the balance read is looser than headline crude strength may suggest.
Source post
WTI M1-M2 is sitting at -0.03$/bbl with a -0.74 move over the last five sessions. WTI M1-M2: -0.03$/bbl 5-session move: -0.74 See signals before the move ->
Follow-up context
In plain terms: Prompt structure has softened into flat or contango territory, which is a warning that the balance read is looser than headline crude strength may suggest.
Paths: Up if backwardation keeps widening and confirms a tighter prompt balance. Flat if structure stabilizes and flat price does most of the talking. Down if the front loosens back toward flat and warns the move is losing prom...
More notes in the system
Friday Wrap
CL1 $80.72 +9.3% | Brent $85.99 +9.5% across the main crude-linked proxies. USO +9.8% | BNO +11.0% XLE +3.5% | XOP +5.0% See signals before the move ->
Wednesday EIA Check
Commercial US crude stocks are at 734.0 MMbbl (-9.3 w/w). SPR sits at 325.7 MMbbl, putting total crude stocks at 1059.7 MMbbl. Commercial: 734.0 MMbbl (-9.3 w/w) SPR: 325.7 MMbbl (-5.5 w/w) Know if the inventory move is real ->
Monday Setup
WTI M1-M2 is sitting at 0.28$/bbl with a +0.13 move over the last five sessions. WTI M1-M2: 0.28$/bbl 5-session move: +0.13 In plain terms: Prompt structure is positive but not extreme, so the balance read is constructive without screaming shortage. See signals before the move ->
